CMHC’s quarterly study reported what’s hot and what’s not and why many residential real estate markets are more hot than others.
As The Globe and Mail’s Tamsin McMahon reports, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. flagged 10 of 15 markets for various measures and, for the first time, warned that Vancouver was looking frothy. That’s no surprise to many observers who have often warned of overvaluation in Canada’s two hottest markets, Vancouver and Toronto.
Other analysts, though, have said there’s no big trouble on the horizon in those two cities because both are creating jobs and both have a healthy level of household formation.
The national housing agency looked at four areas: Overheating, measured by the ratio of sales to new listings; price acceleration based on average prices; overvaluation based on average prices and new housing indexes; and overbuilding, based on rental vacancy rates and the stock of completed and unsold condos.
Here’s a look at what CMHC found in few major markets in its second-quarter report.
Vancouver: “The change in our overall assessment from the previous quarter was mainly influenced by a shift from moderate to strong evidence of overvaluation, indicating that home prices are above the level supported by economic and demographic fundamentals. The remaining indicators assessed continue to suggest weak evidence of problematic conditions.”
Calgary: CMHC detected strong evidence of problematic conditions, due to a combination of moderate evidence of overvaluation and overbuilding. A deterioration of economic fundamentals have contributed to moderate evidence of overvaluation.
Edmonton: CMHC detected moderate evidence of problematic conditions in Edmonton’s housing market. Factors such as overheating and price acceleration continued to show weak evidence of problematic conditions.
Toronto: No surprise that CMHC found “strong evidence of problematic conditions.” There’s “strong evidence” of overvaluation, “moderate evidence” of price acceleration, and “weak evidence” of overheating. And “while we do not detect overbuilding, we have some concerns about the high inventory of completed and unsold condominium apartments.”